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The 2024 Social Security Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) is expected to be between 5.3% and 7.6%. The highest prediction is based on the CPI-W (Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers), the midpoint prediction uses the CPI-U (Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers), and the lowest prediction is based on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) deflator. The Senior Security Alliance investigates it further.

Most Likely Predictions

The CPI-W is the index that is used to calculate COLA. It measures the current prices of goods and services typically purchased by urban wage earners and clerical workers. The CPI-U is a broader measure of inflation than the CPI-W, often used as a proxy for the overall cost of living. The PCE deflator is a measure of inflation used by the Federal Reserve.

Implications of the Different COLA Predictions

If the COLA is 7.6%, it would be the highest in 40 years. This would mean a significant increase in Social Security benefits for millions of Americans. It would help offset the rising cost of living and make it easier for seniors to afford necessities.

If the COLA is 6.1% or 5.3%, it would still significantly increase benefits. However, it would be lower than the 7.6% prediction. It would still help offset the rising cost of living, but it would be smaller.

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